![]() We took every pass over the last five seasons and split it on three dimensions: Indoor/Outdoor, Throw Depth, and whether the throw was outside the numbers.Īgain, only road teams were used to prevent oversampling from teams whose home stadium is indoors. You might not notice the effect at a game level, but what about at a season level? For what it’s worth, the numbers are the same when looking at only road teams (reducing sampling bias) or only late-season games (when playing outdoors is most likely to be a concern). Since the start of 2015, passes thrown indoors have been completed 2.6 percentage points more often. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that games played indoors have better passing numbers. We’ll start with just the impact of playing indoors versus outdoors. Think of it as “Weather Effects Two Ways.” We wanted to add a point or two to the conversation, starting with a blunt instrument and moving to a more nuanced approach. That prompted follow-ups from a few others, as well as Lopez himself. This has been a hot topic following a tweet from the NFL’s Michael Lopez that pointed out that the list of the most effective quarterbacks over the last few seasons predominantly featured players whose home stadium was indoors. How much do weather conditions affect quarterback play? Key takeaway: Weather has some predictable impacts, but maybe not at the scale that critics of dome-heavy quarterbacks think. ![]()
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